Oil, AI, and the New World Economy
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STARTUPS
ROUNDS AND UNICORNS
The Week’s 10 Biggest Funding Rounds: SiFive Leads With $400M For Custom Chip Designs As Aviation, Biotech And Defense Startups Also Raise Big (Crunchbase, 5 minute read)
SiFive (Semiconductors): Raised $400M Series G, positioning itself for a potential IPO. The company provides chip design blueprints used by firms like Alphabet, benefiting from growing demand for custom AI chips and alternatives to traditional architectures
Hermeus (Autonomous Defense): Raised $200M equity + $150M debt, reaching a $1B valuation. The company is developing high-speed autonomous military aircraft, reflecting increased defense spending and geopolitical demand
Sidewinder Therapeutics (Biotech): Raised $137M Series B to advance its pipeline of antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs) into clinical trials, targeting hard-to-treat cancers with precision therapies
Aria Networks (AI Infrastructure): Raised $125M Series A to build AI-driven networking platforms that optimize data center performance, supporting the rapid scaling of AI workloads
Starfish Space (Aerospace): Raised $111.7M Series B to develop autonomous spacecraft for satellite servicing and debris removal
Fintech Startups Globally Raise More Money In Far Fewer Deals In Q1 2026 (Crunchbase, 4 minute read)
Fintech funding is rising but becoming more concentrated, with $12B invested across 751 deals in 2026 (+5% YoY, but -31.5% deal count), signaling larger round sizes. Growth has been driven by late-stage funding ($6.9B, +8% YoY), though activity has slowed sequentially, down 33% from $17.8B in Q4 2025. Despite macro uncertainty and a 33% QoQ funding slowdown, investors remain bullish, particularly on AI-driven fintech and stablecoin infrastructure, with strong focus on enterprise applications and automation
The U.S. dominates, capturing $6.3B (~50% of global funding, +47% YoY), while large rounds continue to drive valuations
IPO activity will depend on market conditions and the performance of mega listings like SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic
ECONOMIC SNAPSHOT
US inflation soars in March as war on Iran drives economy into uncertainty (The Guardian, 4 minute read)
U.S. inflation surged in March, with CPI rising 0.9% MoM and 3.3% YoY, marking the largest monthly increase in nearly two years, driven by the Iran conflict and energy shock. Energy prices jumped 10.9%, including a 21.2% spike in gasoline, while oil remained elevated (~+10% vs. pre-conflict, +30% YTD) due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, which handles ~20% of global energy flows
Core inflation remained moderate (0.2% MoM, 2.6% YoY). However, broader economic signals weakened, with GDP revised down to 0.5%, producer prices rising sharply, and consumer confidence dropping 10.7% to a record low
The labor market remained resilient (178K jobs, 4.3% unemployment), complicating the Fed’s response to rising inflation
Consumer Spending, Engine of the U.S. Economy, Is Under Strain (The New York Times, 4 minute read)
Rising energy prices from the Iran conflict are starting to squeeze U.S. consumers, lifting everyday costs, from groceries to transportation and forcing households to cut discretionary spending. While consumer spending (~⅔ of U.S. GDP) has remained resilient, supported by strong asset prices (equities up ~24% YoY and home values up 50%+ over five years) and tax refunds, underlying pressures are building as wage growth slows, savings rates fall to near-2008 lows, and gas spending rises (+20% YoY)
Higher energy costs act like a tax on consumers, while weaker “wealth effects” from markets further reduce spending
Economists warn that sustained shocks, such as oil above $120/barrel or a ~20% market drop, could trigger a sharper pullback in consumption and potentially a recession
Nonetheless, growth is still projected at ~2.3% in 2026
Trump’s strait blockade risks another serious blow to the global economy (CNN, 7 minute read)
Failed U.S.-Iran talks have pushed the Trump administration toward a risky strategy, including a proposed blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, aimed at cutting Iran’s oil revenues but with major global economic consequences. The announcement already triggered market reactions, with oil prices jumping 8% to ~$104/barrel and U.S. gasoline prices exceeding $4/gallon, contributing to inflation rising to 3.3% in March
While the blockade could further weaken Iran’s economy, it risks disrupting global energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz, which carries ~20 million barrels/day (~20% of global oil supply)
This could push oil prices higher, strain relations with major economies like China, and impact U.S. allies heavily reliant on Gulf energy
The Iran War Has Finally Shattered America’s World (Bloomberg, 7 minute read)
The Iran conflict is accelerating a shift toward a more fragmented and “weaponized” global economy, where critical dependencies, especially energy, are used as leverage, with the Strait of Hormuz highlighting systemic vulnerability. Rising energy prices (oil +30% YTD in recent data), supply chain risks, and geopolitical fragmentation are increasing costs and uncertainty across markets, while pushing countries to invest in resilience (e.g., alternative supply routes, domestic production)
At the same time, the war is reinforcing structural shifts, including rising defense spending (NATO members targeting ~2–5% of GDP), intensified great-power competition, and increased capital allocation toward strategic sectors like AI, infrastructure, and energy security
As a result, markets are becoming more volatile, with growth and investment increasingly shaped by geopolitical risk
IPO & EXITS
Anthropic may have closed the revenue gap on OpenAI. Here's what it means for their IPOs (Reuters, 4 minute read)
A wave of mega IPOs, led by SpaceX (potentially June 2026), followed by OpenAI and Anthropic later in the year, is expected to absorb a significant share of investor demand, potentially crowding out other large tech listings and delaying a broader IPO market reopening until 2027. At the same time, competition between OpenAI and Anthropic is intensifying, with Anthropic reaching ~$30B annualized revenue vs. OpenAI’s ~$24B, driven by enterprise adoption and high-value AI workloads rather than user scale
However, the broader AI expansion faces structural limits, as projected data center buildouts could require $6.6T–$8.8T by 2030, roughly in line with total available funding
Anthropic’s product momentum has already had material effects on public markets, contributing to a ~$1T sell-off in software stocks earlier in the year
Why Starlink is so important to SpaceX's IPO (Yahoo Finance, 6 minute read)
SpaceX’s potential IPO, valued at up to ~$2T, is largely a bet on Starlink, which has evolved from an engineering project into the company’s dominant revenue and profit engine. Starlink generated ~$10.6B in revenue (≈67% of total) and ~$5.8B EBITDA (~54% margins), with 9M+ subscribers across 155+ countries, supported by a massive 9,600+ satellite constellation that continues to expand at industrial scale
Its vertically integrated model creates a strong cost advantage and high-margin recurring revenue, more akin to a software business than traditional telecom
Growth is further driven by new segments like direct-to-cell (6M+ users), enterprise, aviation, and government services, significantly expanding its addressable market
The IPO is essentially a bet on Starlink, positioning SpaceX as a high-growth global connectivity platform
SpaceX isn’t the only defense tech IPO that VCs should care about (PitchBook, 4 minute read)
HawkEye 360, a satellite-based defense tech company, is preparing to go public as a smaller test case ahead of mega listings like SpaceX, offering an early signal for investor appetite in the sector. The company showed strong traction, with revenue rising 75% to $117.7M in 2025, backlog surging 6x to $302M, and both net income and EBITDA turning positive, reflecting growing demand for its signals intelligence platform
The business is driven by rising global defense spending and geopolitical tensions, with 61% of revenue from U.S. government contracts and ~$46M (~25%) from international customers
Its performance post-IPO will be closely watched, as it represents a typical VC-backed defense tech model: high growth, heavy investment, and increasing relevance as governments expand spending on surveillance and security infrastructure
WHAT A TIME TO BE ALIVE
US VC female founders dashboard (PitchBook, 5 minute read)
Venture capital funding for female-founded startups in the U.S. has stabilized after a steep decline from the 2021 peak. While women-led companies now represent a smaller share of total VC deals, they continue to capture a growing portion of total capital raised, signaling stronger deal quality and investor confidence. In Q1 2026, women co-led companies raised $166.1 billion across 690 deals (vs. $51 billion across 880 deals in Q1 2025)
Female-only founded companies captured 6.2% of total deal count, while female-and-male co-led teams account for 17.7%
In terms of capital, female-only teams received 0.6% of total VC investment, compared to 62.6% going to mixed-gender founding teams
According to PitchBook data, the trend shows steady progress across states, industries, and stages, highlighting a sustained shift toward greater inclusion and visibility for women founders in the U.S. venture ecosystem
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Happy reading,
8alpha.ai’s Research & Investment Team
