The IPO Rollercoaster
Week of August 4th, 2025
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STARTUPS
ROUNDS AND UNICORNS
The Week’s 10 Biggest Funding Rounds: Ramp Ramps Up While AI And Healthcare Hold Strong (Crunchbase, 5 minute read)
Ramp (Fintech): Raised $500 million in a Series E round led by Iconiq Capital, valuing the New York-based finance automation platform at $22.5 billion. Total equity funding now stands at $1.9 billion
MapLight Therapeutics (Biopharma/Neuroscience): Secured $372.5 million in Series D funding co-led by Forbion and Goldman Sachs Alternatives. The Redwood City-based firm develops treatments for brain disorders
Ambience Healthcare (Healthcare AI): Closed a $243 million Series C round led by Oak HC/FT and Andreessen Horowitz. The San Francisco startup builds AI tools for medical documentation and coding
Quince (Fashion): Raised $200 million at a valuation exceeding $4.5 billion, according to Bloomberg. The affordable luxury e-commerce brand is based in San Francisco and reportedly led by Iconiq Capital
Observe (AI Enterprise Software): Secured $156 million in Series C funding led by Sutter Hill Ventures. The San Mateo-based observability software firm has now raised over $460 million to date
In the 3-way AI horse race, OpenAI remains firmly in the lead (PitchBook, 3 minute read)
OpenAI continues to dominate the AI funding landscape, having secured $66.4 billion to date, more than double the capital raised by either of its closest rivals, xAI or Anthropic. Its latest $8.3 billion raise, part of a $40 billion funding commitment, solidifies its position as the second most valuable VC-backed company after SpaceX, with a valuation near $300 billion
xAI, despite being newer than Anthropic, has already raised nearly twice as much and is valued at roughly a quarter of OpenAI’s worth
The company is aiming for a $10 billion round, which would keep it in fourth place among VC-backed firms
Meanwhile, Anthropic is targeting a $5 billion raise that would push its valuation to $170 billion and place it as the fifth most valuable VC-backed company
ECONOMIC SNAPSHOT
US labor market adds 73,000 jobs in July while May, June reports see 'larger than normal' downward revisions (Yahoo Finance, 3 minute read)
The July jobs report revealed a significant slowdown in U.S. labor market momentum. Only 73,000 nonfarm payroll jobs were added, falling short of the 104,000 expected. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2%, while major downward revisions to May and June data showed over 250,000 fewer jobs created than previously reported. Average hourly earnings rose 3.9% year-over-year, and the labor force participation rate dipped slightly to 62.2%
The unexpected weakness has increased market expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, with the CME FedWatch Tool raising the probability to 67% from 38% the day before
Despite the slowdown, Fed Chair Jerome Powell had previously characterized the labor market as “solid,” though he acknowledged a deceleration in hiring
Supporting data from ADP showed private sector payrolls rose by 104,000 in July, suggesting a recalibrated but still resilient job market
Trump says he will be 'substantially raising' India tariffs over Russia oil buys (Yahoo Finance, 2 minute read)
President Trump announced that he would be substantially increasing tariffs on Indian exports, citing the country’s ongoing purchases and resale of Russian oil as a means of indirectly funding Russia’s war in Ukraine. The new measures impose a 25% tariff on Indian goods entering the U.S., adding to a sweeping set of trade actions unveiled in recent days. These include a 35% tariff on Canadian imports, tariffs ranging from 10% to 40% on dozens of other countries, and a 50% tariff on semi-finished copper products starting August 1
Trump also signed an order ending the de minimis exemption on low-value imports under $800, making them subject to tariffs beginning August 29
Brazilian goods face a 50% tariff, while the U.S. and European Union reached a new trade agreement that imposes 15% tariffs on EU exports
Trump also announced a trade deal with South Korea, including a 15% tariff on Korean goods but none on U.S. exports, and granted Mexico a 90-day reprieve from higher tariffs
U.S. economy grew at a 3% rate in Q2, a better-than-expected pace even as Trump’s tariffs hit (CNBC, 3 minute read)
The U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 3.0% in the second quarter of 2025, significantly surpassing expectations of 2.3%, according to the Commerce Department. This rebound was fueled by a sharp drop in imports, a modest rise in consumer spending, and easing inflation. Imports fell 30.3% after surging in Q1 as firms front-loaded purchases ahead of President Trump’s April tariff announcement, while exports declined 1.8%
Despite geopolitical tensions and ongoing tariff negotiations, the economy showed broad-based resilience: inflation cooled, with core PCE rising 2.5% versus 3.5% in Q1
However, final sales to private domestic purchasers, a key demand gauge, rose just 1.2%, the slowest pace since late 2022, suggesting underlying demand is softening
Trump praised GDP growth and urged rate cuts, but economists noted that while headline growth is strong, much of the gain stemmed from trade distortions unlikely to repeat in Q3
Fed holds interest rates steady as two Trump appointees vote to cut them (NBC News, 4 minute read)
The Federal Reserve held its benchmark interest rate steady at 4.25%–4.5% during its July meeting, resisting mounting pressure from President Trump to cut rates. In its statement, the Fed noted that economic growth had “moderated” in the first half of the year, while inflation remained “somewhat elevated.” Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that the current rate was not restraining economic activity but acknowledged that ongoing uncertainty from Trump’s escalating tariff policy continued to weigh on the economic outlook
Financial markets responded swiftly: the probability of a rate cut at the Fed’s next meeting in September dropped to below 50%, down from over 60% before the announcement
Adding to the complexity, the Commerce Department’s GDP report released the same day showed a stronger-than-expected 3% annualized growth in Q2, reversing a Q1 decline of 0.5%
Core inflation, as measured by the Fed’s preferred PCE index, rose 2.5% in Q2, up from 2.2% expected and higher than the Fed’s 2% target, further complicating the case for a near-term rate cut
IPO & EXITS
Analysis: Venture-Backed IPOs Of 2025 Have Done Well Post-Debut; Now It’s Figma’s Turn (Crunchbase, 4 minute read)
Despite a relatively quiet year for U.S. tech IPOs, those that have launched have performed exceptionally well, creating positive momentum for upcoming listings. Figma, the design software company, priced its IPO at $33 per share—above its projected range—and began trading under the ticker FIG on the NYSE. The IPO values Figma at up to $18.8 billion. This follows a broader 2025 trend: all nine largest venture-backed IPOs are currently trading above their offering prices
Leading this surge is Circle Internet Group, the New York-based stablecoin provider. Valued above $40 billion, Circle’s shares have surged more than 5x since its June IPO
Its success has spurred other crypto companies—BitGo, Gemini, and Bullish—to file for IPOs, signaling a possible wave of digital asset-related public listings
Bitcoin’s price, hovering near an all-time high of $118,000, has also fueled optimism
CoreWeave, the AI infrastructure provider, remains the most valuable 2025 debut so far, with a market cap of around $52 billion, and its shares have more than doubled since the April IPO
Figma IPO Tops $58 Billion Valuation: Is It Worth the Price? (The Motley Fool, 4 minute read)
Figma made one of the most explosive public debuts in recent history, with its stock jumping 250% on its first trading day, briefly pushing its market capitalization above $58 billion. The company raised $412 million through the IPO at a $33 per share price, though shares soon peaked above $142 before settling closer to $90. Figma, known for its AI-powered design tools, is used by over 13 million monthly active users, including 95% of Fortune 500 companies
The IPO itself was more than 40x oversubscribed, reflecting overwhelming investor demand
Revenues grew from $504 million in 2023 to $749 million in 2024, with projections suggesting the company could cross the $1 billion mark in 2025
However, on Monday, Figma (FIG) shares fell 23% to $94.50, reversing part of last week’s rally following the company’s New York Stock Exchange debut
Klarna might reschedule its IPO for September (TechCrunch, 2 minute read)
Klarna is reportedly targeting an IPO as early as September, reflecting renewed strength in fintech stocks and U.S. equity markets. The Swedish payments company initially filed for a U.S. IPO in March, aiming to raise around $1 billion at a $15 billion valuation. However, it paused the process in April due to market turbulence following President Trump’s tariff proposals
By June, CEO Sebastian Siemiatkowski expressed cautious optimism, stating he was “happy there’s less turbulence in the market”
Klarna remains profitable and was most recently valued at approximately $14 billion privately
Although final timing and structure of the offering remain undecided, the company’s strong fundamentals and clearer market outlook position it well for a potential public debut later this year
Peter Thiel-backed Bullish seeks up to $4.2 billion valuation in US IPO (Reuters, 4 minute read)
Crypto exchange Bullish is launching its U.S. IPO roadshow, seeking a valuation of up to $4.23 billion, a significant discount from its earlier $9 billion SPAC target. The company plans to raise up to $629.3 million by offering 20.3 million shares priced between $28 and $31 each. The move comes amid renewed momentum in digital assets driven by recent regulatory clarity, such as the GENIUS Act, and a more favorable environment under the Trump administration
Bullish, backed by Peter Thiel and led by former NYSE president Thomas Farley, operates a crypto trading platform for institutions and owns CoinDesk
The company reported a $349 million Q1 loss, down from a $105 million profit last year, largely due to declines in crypto asset valuations
IPO will be listed on the NYSE under the ticker “BLSH”, with J.P. Morgan, Jefferies, and Citigroup as lead underwriters
Why More Startups Are Buying Other Startups In 2025 (Crunchbase, 4 minute read)
Startup acquisitions by fellow startups are on the rise in 2025 as fundraising remains challenging and AI competition intensifies. In the first half of the year, 427 global startup M&A deals were reported, an 18% increase over the same period in 2024. Founders are turning to acquisitions to broaden tech capabilities, consolidate IP, and attract investment with stronger narratives
Some larger startups that raised funds during the 2021 boom are now deploying capital to acquire peers offering complementary technology, traction, or talent, rather than pursuing down rounds
Notable deals include OpenAI’s $6.5 billion acquisition of Io, Ripple’s $1.25 billion buyout of Hidden Road, and Databricks’ $1 billion deal for Neon
Many buyers favor asset acquisitions or acquihires, integrating small teams and IP for rapid go-to-market advantages, especially in AI
WHAT A TIME TO BE ALIVE
VC industry has become a better career for women over the past 7 years (TechCrunch, 3 minute read)
Women are gaining ground in the venture capital industry, with a new All Raise report, first covered by The Wall Street Journal, showing that 18.6% of senior roles at top VC firms are now held by women, double the percentage from 2018. The report also found that 25% of women in VC were promoted last year and that 75% of investors remain focused on backing underrepresented founders
Despite this progress, women still hold relatively few top roles at mega-funds managing over $3 billion
However, many are forging their own paths: over 100 women-led funds launched in the past decade, and nearly 180 women-led firms collectively raised $5.3 billion in 2023
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Happy reading,
8alpha.ai’s Research & Investment Team
