Big Bets

What has President Trump said this week?

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What has President Trump said this week? 〰️

1. The Genesis Mission

President Trump signed an executive order on November 24 launching the Genesis Mission, a Department of Energy–led initiative designed to use artificial intelligence to modernize scientific research and accelerate breakthroughs across biotechnology, critical minerals, nuclear fission and fusion, quantum information science, and semiconductor development (White House, 2025). The program will integrate DOE supercomputers, federal scientific datasets, and cloud infrastructure to build large-scale scientific foundation models and AI agents capable of designing experiments, optimizing industrial processes, and identifying new materials (Department of Energy, 2025). Key partners include DOE, NASA, NIH, and NSF, along with private-sector collaborators such as OpenAI, Google, NVIDIA, and AWS (NBC News, 2025). 

Governance of Genesis will be coordinated through a new interagency structurecentered at the Department of Energy, with the White House setting strategic priorities while federal agencies contribute data and computing resources (White House, 2025). In parallel, the administration released a draft executive order outlining a national AI framework that would establish federal standards, potentially overriding conflicting state-level AI regulations. States accepting federal AI funding may be required to comply with these standards, raising questions about preemption and federal–state authority (CNBC, 2025). 

Genesis signals a major federal investment in AI infrastructure, high-performance computing, and data-intensive science. The initiative could channel new funding toward chipmakers, cloud providers, and scientific software firms, while deepening public–private partnerships across energy, health, and advanced manufacturing (NBC News, 2025). A unified federal AI rulebook could reduce regulatory uncertainty for major technology platforms and enterprise users, even as it triggers legal and political pushback from states seeking to maintain stricter AI laws (CNBC, 2025). 

2. NVIDIA Chips to China

Reports indicate that Trump administration officials are internally debating whether to allow NVIDIA to sell its most advanced H200 AI chip to Chinese customers, a potential policy shift that closely follows a November 24 call between President Trump and President Xi aimed at stabilizing economic ties (Bloomberg, 2025). Current U.S. export controls, tightened over recent years, were designed to limit China’s access to cutting-edge AI accelerators capable of powering frontier systems (New York Times, 2025). Allowing H200 shipments, even in a modified form, would mark a significant concession in the U.S.–China technology conflict and could deliver billions of dollars in additional revenue for NVIDIA (Yahoo Finance, 2025). 

Supporters of a more flexible approach argue that controlled sales could preserve U.S. market share, maintain commercial leverage over Chinese firms, and provide clearer export rules for AI hardware. Critics, including bipartisan China hawks, warn that loosening restrictions could undermine national security, accelerate China’s AI development, and weaken the strategic logic behind the CHIPS Act and related industrial policies (New York Times, 2025). No final decision has been made, and the proposal remains under active internal review (Bloomberg, 2025). 

For markets, the debate highlights the trade-off between export controls and earnings growth for U.S. semiconductor leaders. Permission for partial H200 sales would likely boost NVIDIA’s China revenues and support data-center demand, but could trigger congressional scrutiny and calls for tighter oversight. Maintaining strict bans, by contrast, would sustain strategic pressure on Beijing but may accelerate China’s push toward domestic chip alternatives and non-U.S. suppliers, reshaping global AI hardware competition over the medium term (Bloomberg, 2025). 

3. Economic Realities and Business Strain

The White House is preparing a contingency plan as the Supreme Court reviews Trump’s authority to impose blanket tariffs, a ruling that could require the government to return tens of billions of dollars to importers (Yahoo Finance, 2025). At the same time, the administration has expanded tariff exemptions on select consumer goods to help ease price pressures, while Trump has acknowledged that U.S. consumers are “paying something” for the tariffs (Yahoo Finance, 2025). 

Independent assessments offer a more cautious view of tariff impacts. A Bloomberg analysis found that Trump’s claim of $21 trillion in tariff-driven investment pledges is closer to $7 trillion in verifiable commitments (Bloomberg, 2025). The Peterson Institute estimates that recent tariff reductions amount to about $35 in annual savings per U.S. household, highlighting that importers, and ultimately consumers, bear much of the cost (Bloomberg, 2025). While major firms continue to announce reshoring initiatives, capital spending timelines remain long, and the benefits are uneven across industries. 

Small and midsize businesses report significant disruptions tied to shifting tariff rates. Reuters found that rapid policy changes, such as a proposed 180% tariff on Chinese imports later reduced to 20%, forced firms to pursue costly supplier searches or absorb higher duties, resulting in delayed orders and critically low inventory levels, in some cases, only 10% of needed stock ahead of the holiday season (Reuters, 2025). Operating margins for small retailers have fallen to –20.7%, leaving 36% at high bankruptcy risk compared with 12% of larger companies (Reuters, 2025). These pressures illustrate how tariff volatility is reshaping supply chains and cost structures, with uneven effects across sectors as policymakers, courts, and global partners determine the next phase of U.S. trade policy heading into 2026.