Is it Over?
What has President Trump said this week?
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What has President Trump said this week? 〰️
1. The Longest U.S. Government Shutdown – A Temporary Bill
Congress has moved to end what has become the longest U.S. government shutdown on record by advancing a temporary funding bill that reopens federal agencies while lawmakers negotiate longer-term appropriations (Bloomberg, 2025). President Trump is expected to sign the measure tonight, allowing federal employees to return to work Thursday (NPR, 2025). The legislation funds most agencies through January 30, leaving open the possibility of another shutdown early next year, while some departments, including Agriculture, Veterans Affairs, and the FDA, receive funding through September.
The shutdown’s operational and economic fallout has been substantial. Federal workers missed 43 days of pay, FAA-mandated flight reductions reached 6%, and permitting, procurement, and loan programs slowed or halted, affecting contractors, small businesses, and local economies (BBC, 2025; Vox, 2025). The bill includes several near-term protections: roughly 4,000 planned layoffs will be reversed, furloughed workers will receive full back pay, and SNAP benefits are fully funded through September 2026. However, agencies now face a lengthy restart process as they work through backlogs and recalibrate contract and grant timelines after six weeks of interrupted operations (Bloomberg Government, 2025). Air travel disruptions may persist for days, even as food aid distribution resumes more quickly (Vox, 2025).
Politically, the deal provides short-term stability without resolving underlying disputes. For markets and regulated industries, the temporary funding bill reduces near-term uncertainty but does not eliminate it: continuing-resolution funding limits new projects and delays long-term planning, meaning businesses may still face operational friction heading into early 2026 (Vox, 2025).
2. Big Promise: A $2,000 Tariff Dividend
President Trump has proposedgiving Americans a $2,000 “tariff dividend,” funded by revenue generated from his administration’s tariffs (CNN, 2025; ABC, 2025). The idea, positioned as support for low- and middle-income households, resembles past stimulus payments. Shortly after the announcement, however, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signaled that any benefit could instead take the form of tax relief already included in recent legislation rather than direct checks (ABC, 2025; NPR, 2025).
Fiscal experts note that the proposal faces significant constraints. The U.S. collected $195 billion in tariff revenue last fiscal year, while providing $2,000 to roughly 150 million Americans (those earning under $100,000, based on comparable stimulus thresholds) would cost about $300 billion, far exceeding available funds (AP, 2025). Even limiting payments to lower-income households leaves a funding gap of more than $100 billion, economists estimate. In addition, the Supreme Court is currently reviewing whether the administration’s use of emergency powers to impose tariffs is constitutional. A ruling against the White House could force the government to return tens of billions of dollars to importers (AP, 2025; ABC, 2025).
Any dividend program would require congressional approval, and economists caution that broad payments during a period of elevated inflation could increase demand and complicate monetary policy (CNN, 2025). For now, the proposal remains speculative, with key operational, fiscal, and legal questions still unresolved.
3. A U.S.–South Korea Deal: Delayed?
The administration has pursued a broadened U.S.–South Korea agreement spanning trade, critical minerals, and defense-industrial cooperation, part of a wider strategy to secure technology supply chains and strengthen Indo-Pacific partnerships (Washington Post, 2025). The proposed deal would encourage Korean investment in U.S. manufacturing and energy, expand access to critical minerals processing, and streamline market entry for advanced goods and services, complementing existing semiconductor and EV-battery collaboration channels.
However, negotiations have stalled over disputes related to nuclear-submarine cooperation, specifically the level of access and technology transfer permitted under each nation’s legal and strategic constraints. According to reports, these differences, along with unresolved technical details and implementation timelines, prompted both sides to postpone finalization (Reuters, 2025; Modern Diplomacy, 2025).
For markets, the implications are mixed. A finalized agreement could accelerate bilateral investment and supply-chain diversification, while continued delays prolong uncertaintyaround rules of origin, export controls, and defense offsets. Companies with exposure to semiconductors, advanced materials, and energy infrastructure are watching for potential phased announcements that advance trade and mineral provisions even as defense components remain under negotiation (Washington Post, 2025).