Trade War Reloaded

What has President Trump said this week?

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What has President Trump said this week? 〰️

1. China Tariffs and Rare Minerals

The Trump administration has signaled plans to impose additional tariffs on select Chinese goods alongside intensified pressure on Beijing over its controls on rare earth exports, as both sides prepare for potential leader-level talks during the upcoming World Bank and IMF meetings (Washington Post, 2025).

Beijing recently tightened export restrictions on critical minerals and rare earth technologies, framing the move as a national security measure. U.S. officials criticized the curbs as coercive, warning they could disrupt supply chains for electric vehicles, wind turbines, and advanced electronics (CNBC, 2025). Washington has urged China to roll back the measures, linking potential tariff relief to improved market access for American firms in mineral processing (Reuters, 2025).

President Trump acknowledged the U.S. is already in a “trade war” with China, reaffirming a 100% tariff policy while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent proposed extending the current tariff pause beyond 90 days if Beijing eases its export controls (Bloomberg, 2025). Near-term risks include price spikes and procurement volatility in critical materials for batteries and permanent magnets, with potential ripple effects in the automotive, renewable energy, and data center industries. Companies are accelerating efforts to diversify suppliers toward Australia, Canada, Mexico, and the U.S.

Politically, a Trump–Xi agreement combining limited tariff relief with clearer export licensing could stabilize mineral markets. However, in the absence of progress, analysts expect extended supply tightness and regulatory uncertainty as trade tensions deepen (CNBC, 2025; Bloomberg, 2025).

2. Layoff or Retirement?

As the government shutdown continues, federal agencies are evaluating workforce measures ranging from targeted layoffs (RIFs) to expanded retirement and buyout programs. Reports suggest the administration is considering narrow reductions in specific functions while encouraging attrition through voluntary separation incentives, a move that has drawn opposition from labor unions and several lawmakers (Washington Post, 2025).

Uncertainty over congressional funding has intensified contingency planning across agencies. According to the Associated Press, prolonged budget gaps increase the likelihood of RIFs in non-essential roles and contractor cutbacks, with union filings warning of uneven regional and community impacts (AP, 2025). Analysts note that while buyouts may reduce payroll costs, they risk eroding critical expertise in areas such as IT, procurement, and safety operations, potentially disrupting service delivery.

For investors, workforce restructuring within the federal government can reshape demand visibility for government contracting, IT modernization, and facilities management. Layoffs often depress near-term contract volumes, while retirements can later drive demand for outsourcing and modernization projects as agencies rebuild capacity. Equity and distributional concerns, particularly regarding impacts on Black federal workers and their communities, could influence the political response and the pace of restructuring (Forbes, 2025).

Investors should track contract pipelines, review exposure to different contract types, and keep strong cash reserves for firms reliant on federal spending.

3. Trump Betting on Argentina

The White House is backing a new U.S. financial package for Argentina, following the collapse of a previous first-term effort amid inflation and debt turmoil. The plan combines financial assistance and policy engagement aimed at stabilizing growth, easing dollar shortages, and supporting fiscal reforms (Bloomberg, 2025; Washington Post, 2025). The initiative reflects Argentina’s strategic relevance as a supplier of grains, lithium/critical minerals, and energy, as well as its role as a regional financial hub.

Buenos Aires faces entrenched inflation, periodic currency pressures, and large external financing needs, even as it seeks to unlock investment in shale, lithium brines, and agri‑exports. For the U.S., supporting stabilization aims to secure commodity flows, encourage dollar receipts, and counterbalance alternative funding sources (BBC Mundo, 2025). The White House has emphasized that support will be conditional on credible fiscal and structural reforms, seeking to avoid past setbacks.

For investors, the outlook is mixed: U.S. backing could reduce risk exposure in sectors like energy, mining, logistics, and fintech, yet challenges persist from foreign-exchange controls, regulatory shifts, and social tensions. Private equity investors evaluating Argentina should model multiple currency scenarios, favor hard-currency contracts, and explore joint-venture structures aligned with evolving U.S.–Argentina economic ties (Washington Post, 2025).