New Trade Order
What has President Trump said this week?
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What has President Trump said this week? 〰️
1. Tariff pause for Mexico. Brazil, India, and China face another reality
President Donald Trump announced on Truth Social that the United States will extend its current tariff pause with Mexico for an additional, final 90 days, describing it as “the exact same deal” as the prior short-term arrangement (Truth Social, 2025). The decision maintains the status quo in U.S.–Mexico trade relations, providing temporary relief for businesses while offering limited clarity on long-term trade policy.
Simultaneously, the administration has expanded its trade measures by reintroducing tariffs on imports from Brazil and India, citing concerns over political developments and energy ties with Russia, respectively (Times of India, 2025). Brazil, despite a $7.4 billion trade surplus with the U.S., will now face 50% tariffs—the highest applied to any country. While the White House has not commented in detail, some analysts speculate the move may be influenced by recent developments involving former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, a political ally of Trump (New York Times, 2025).
Regarding China, the U.S. maintains a 30% tariff on imports while broader negotiations continue. Recent trade data show that the U.S. trade deficit narrowed to a two-year low in June, with the China-specific deficit falling to $9.5 billion—the lowest since February 2004. Overall, the U.S. trade gap with China has contracted by 70%, as Chinese imports declined to $18.9 billion, the lowest level since 2009 (Reuters, 2025). Ultimately, these figures illustrate the significant and growing influence of U.S. trade policy on bilateral trade outcomes.
2. Key Fed Seat Opens
Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler announced her resignation on August 1, 2025, marking the departure of the first Colombian-American to serve on the Fed Board. No specific reason was provided, though her exit comes amid growing political pressure from President Trump, who has urged the Fed to cut interest rates in response to strong GDP growth and easing inflation (Washington Post, 2025).
Kugler’s departure opens the door for a new appointment, potentially giving the Trump administration a chance to further influence monetary policy. According to reports, the vacancy may be filled by a candidate more aligned with pro-growth and low-interest-rate priorities, especially if confirmed quickly by the Senate (Reuters, 2025). While the Federal Reserve is designed to operate independently of political leadership, the balance of its board significantly influences rate decisions and the interpretation of economic data.
The Fed held rates steady at its July 2025 meeting, indicating a “wait-and-see” approach amid mixed signals on inflation and labor markets (NBC News, 2025). While a rate cut could support short-term economic growth, it also risks reigniting inflation, with broader implications for borrowing costs, financial markets, and real wages. Ultimately, the nomination process will be a key test of how the Senate balances central bank independence with political influence.
3. Labor Data in the Spotlight
Following a weaker-than-expected jobs report, President Trump took to Truth Social to question the accuracy of employment data reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), labeling it “rigged,” and announced the dismissal of BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer, a Biden appointee (Truth Social, 2025).
Independent analysts and media outlets have countered the criticism, noting that the BLS uses transparent, audited methodologies based on household and employer surveys with publicly disclosed margins of error. According to ABC Senior White House Correspondent Selina Wang, there is no indication of manipulation or statistical misconduct in the latest figures (ABC News, 2025).
The episode has renewed concerns about the politicization of economic data. Some observers caution that casting doubt on neutral institutions like the BLS could affect public confidence in government reporting and financial markets, while international observers warn of reputational risks to U.S. economic transparency standards (BBC, 2025). Given that job data plays a vital role in interest rate decisions and investor sentiment, preserving the integrity of government reporting remains crucial, especially with midterm elections approaching.