Cease-Fire
What has President Trump said this week?
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What has President Trump said this week? 〰️
1. Trump, Iran, and the Fragile Cease-Fire
President Trump’s June 22–23 airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities have drawn mixed reactions. Polls from CNN/SSRS and YouGov indicate that most Americans disapprove of the strikes, and Trump’s approval rating has dropped to 41%—one of the lowest of his second term (Forbes, 2025). While Trump claimed the bombings “destroyed all nuclear facilities,” a preliminary Defense Intelligence Agency report found the damage to be limited: surface entrances were sealed, but key underground structures remained intact. Israeli intelligence offered a similar assessment. Trump announced a ceasefire after Iran retaliated with a missile strike on a U.S. base in Qatar.
Twelve days of intense conflict between Israel and Iran have now given way to a fragile ceasefire, which has held for a second consecutive day. Iranian President Pezeshkian has expressed openness to resuming nuclear negotiations, and both sides appear inclined to deescalate. However, limited retaliatory strikes have continued, and U.S. intelligence agencies remain skeptical about the long-term strategic impact of the airstrikes. Meanwhile, Trump took to social media to urge oil producers to keep prices down and called for more domestic drilling (Forbes, 2025).
Markets reacted with cautious optimism. The S&P 500 rose 1.1% on June 25, after gaining 1% the previous day, putting it within 1% of its February record high (The New York Times, 2025). Still, geopolitical tensions and energy supply risks persist.
2. Rates on Hold, Tensions on High
As economic uncertainty lingers, the Federal Reserve has maintained a cautious stance, resisting President Trump’s escalating demands for immediate rate cuts. Fed Chair Jerome Powell testified before Congress on June 24, defending the decision to keep interest rates steady and emphasizing the need to monitor both inflation data and the economic impact of Trump’s sweeping tariffs. Despite mounting political pressure—including Trump calling him “very dumb”—Powell reiterated that the Fed is “well positioned to wait” and focus on its dual mandate of stable prices and full employment (The Guardian, 2025; AP, 2025). Powell signaled that any rate change may not occur until September (CNN, 2025).
The Fed cut its 2025 GDP growth forecast from 2.1% to 1.4%, and now expects unemployment to rise to 4.5%—its highest outside the pandemic era. Inflation, once expected to decline, is now projected to rise to 3% and stay above the Fed’s 2% target through 2026. While Trump argues that steep rate cuts would lower government borrowing costs, Powell and others insist that monetary policy must remain independent and data-driven, not politically motivated.
As the July 29–30 Fed meeting nears, market uncertainty persists, with traders split on whether a cut will come this summer or in the fall (Reuters, 2025; AP, 2025).
3. Trump Returns to NATO
President Trump’s return to the NATO summit this week in The Hague was met with both praise and caution. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte lauded Trump’s influence in securing a historic agreement: all 32 member states are expected to endorse a new defense spending benchmark of 5% of GDP, combining 3.5% in traditional military budgets and 1.5% in related infrastructure and cyber defense. “You will achieve something NO American president in decades could get done,” Rutte wrote in a private message Trump shared publicly (The Guardian, 2025).
While en route to the summit, President Trump cast doubt on whether the U.S. would uphold Article 5—NATO’s mutual defense clause—saying it “depends on your definition” (AP, 2025). Article 5, the alliance’s core commitment, has only been invoked once—after 9/11—and is central to NATO’s deterrence strategy. Trump’s remarks, echoing his earlier skepticism during his first term and 2024 campaign trail threats to “encourage” Russia to act against non-compliant members, revived concerns in Europe about the reliability of U.S. defense commitments.
Despite the controversy, most NATO members backed the 5% spending pledge, with countries like Germany and the UK committing to substantial budget increases. However, the push has sparked diplomatic friction, even as leaders strive to project unity in the face of growing global threats.