Tariffs, Tomatoes, and Tensions: What Trump’s Policies Mean for Your Wallet
What has President Trump said this week?
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What has President Trump said this week? 〰️
1. Inflation Is Down—He’s Right, But Not About Everything
On April 15th, President Trump took to Truth Social to showcase what he described as positive economic indicators. Is he right?
Gasoline prices did decline—down 6.3% in March—largely due to expectations of higher oil output from OPEC+ and weaker global demand (AAA, 2025). However, natural gas prices rose by 3.4%, and grocery costs increased by 0.5%, signaling that everyday essentials remain stubbornly expensive (Trading Economics, Investopedia, 2025).
Inflation showed signs of cooling, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) falling 0.1% in March. This brought the annual inflation rate to 2.4%, its lowest level since September 2021 and the second straight monthly decline (Trading Economics, 2025).
But relief may be short-lived. President Trump’s proposed tariffs—including a 10% blanket import tax and a steep 125% tariff on Chinese goods—could reignite inflation. As economist Robert Frick warned, “We may be whistling past the graveyard right now, because we know that costs are going to increase” (CNN, 2025).
2. Does Mexico owe the US Water?
On April 10th, President Donald Trump claimed that Mexico owes Texas 1.3 million acre-feet of water under the 1944 Water Treaty. He warned that if Mexico fails to meet its obligations, the U.S. could impose sanctions and tariffs (Truth Social, 2025).
Under the treaty, Mexico must deliver an average of 350,000 acre-feet of water per year—1.75 million acre-feet over a five-year cycle—from the Rio Grande. In exchange, the U.S. supplies Mexico with 1.5 million acre-feet annually from the Colorado River (IBWC, 1944).
As of late 2024, Mexico had delivered only 488,634 acre-feet—less than 30% of its required amount for the current cycle, which ends in October 2025 (IBWC, 2025). Mexican officials blame the shortfall on prolonged drought conditions that have severely reduced water flows.
In response to rising diplomatic pressure, President Claudia Sheinbaum announced that Mexico will make an immediate water delivery to Texas farmers to help ease the deficit. She added that Mexico is actively exploring additional ways to meet its obligations and has submitted a formal proposal to U.S. authorities. President Sheinbaum emphasized that compliance is being assessed based on actual water availability, noting that low Rio Grande levels have complicated fulfillment efforts (The Guardian, 2025).
3. Ketchup and Salads Just Got Pricier
On April 14, 2025, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced it will impose a 20.91% anti-dumping duty on most tomatoes imported from Mexico, effective July 14. The measure aims to protect domestic tomato producers, with the Department stating it will “allow U.S. tomato growers to compete fairly in the marketplace” (Reuters; The Economic Times, 2025).
While the move may support U.S. farmers, it is expected to raise prices for consumers. Mexico supplies 98% of U.S. tomato imports and is projected to export 1.91 million tons in 2025 (Bloomberg, 2025).
In response, Mexican authorities have reopened negotiations to avoid the tariffs and preserve favorable trade terms. President Claudia Sheinbaum emphasized the strategic importance of the U.S. market, noting that the current export volume “can’t be substituted,” and voiced optimism about reaching a resolution before the July deadline. Agriculture Minister Julio Berdegué added that the tariffs will primarily hurt American consumers, warning that “their salads, ketchup, and anything that contains tomatoes is going to cost them more” (El Economista; Bloomberg, 2025).