Promises, Power, and Performance: Trump’s 100 Days in Review
What has President Trump said this week?
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What has President Trump said this week? 〰️
It’s been 100 days since President Trump began his second term, a milestone he’s proudly declared “the most successful first 100 days of any administration in the history of our country.” In a celebratory speech on April 29th, he doubled down on his biggest talking points: tariffs, immigration, and the strength of the U.S. economy. This week, we cut through the rhetoric to examine the facts behind his boldest claims, and what the numbers really tell us.
On The Economy:
President Trump promised “an economic boom like no other.” But 100 days into his second term, the numbers tell a different story. The U.S. economy contracted 0.3% in Q1 2025, marking its worst performance in three years (Politico, 2025). Markets have stumbled alongside it. The Dow is down roughly 7%, and the S&P 500 has fallen nearly 8% since Inauguration Day.
As we reported in our latest weekly newsletter, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has slashed its 2025 U.S. growth forecast from 2.7% to 1.8%, citing rising uncertainty fueled by newly imposed tariffs. The IMF also raised the odds of a U.S. recession this year to 40%, up from 25% just six months ago (AlphaInsights, 2025).
On Trade Policy:
At the core of President Trump’s economic strategy is an aggressive trade agenda. He’s argued that the new 145% tariffs on Chinese imports will deliver “a fairer deal,” protect American jobs, and stop what he claims is an annual loss of a trillion dollars (Business Insider, 2025). But the reality is more complicated. Tariffs are, fundamentally, taxes on imported goods. When a product made overseas enters the U.S., it’s the importer, typically an American company, that pays the fee at the border. The intent is to make foreign goods more expensive, giving domestic producers a competitive edge. But in practice, these costs almost always flow down the supply chain, from wholesalers to retailers, and ultimately, to American consumers.
So far, the data doesn’t align with the President’s narrative. In January 2025, U.S. imports surged to a century-high of $329 billion, with no significant decline in the months that followed. Analysts attribute the spike to businesses rushing to stockpile goods ahead of rising costs (BBC, 2025).
On Inflation:
"We have already ended inflation, raised wages, and given you the greatest economy in the history of the world—that’s already happening,” President Trump declared. But while inflation has eased, it hasn’t ended. In March, the Consumer Price Index dipped 0.1%, lowering the annual inflation rate to 2.4%—its lowest since September 2021 (Trading Economics, 2025). As for gas prices, Trump claimed they had fallen to “$1.98 in a lot of states.” Yet according to AAA, the national average on April 29th was $3.16—slightly above the $3.125 average when he took office (BBC, 2025).
The real challenge is ahead. Tariffs are, by design, inflationary. They increase input costs for businesses, leaving companies with two choices: absorb the hit or pass it on. In reality, it’s often both. Margins tighten, and consumers pay more. With 145% tariffs in play, many economists warn that price pressures could return, and this time, with fewer policy tools left to blunt the impact.
On Immigration:
Trump declared his administration is “ending illegal immigration week by week” (CNN, 2025). He touted back-to-back records for the lowest number of illegal border crossings ever recorded. Indeed, U.S. Customs and Border Protection data shows that arrests at the southern border plunged to just over 7,000 in March 2025, down from 137,000 in March 2024. February numbers were similarly low, marking the fewest crossings since the late 1960s (BBC, 2025).
Approval Ratings:
President Trump has dismissed polls showing his approval rating below 50%, calling them “fake.” Yet the numbers are striking: at 44%, he is the only post-World War II president to fall below majority approval at this point in his term (BBC, 2025). But it’s not just the low rating that stands out, it’s the depth of the divide.
According to Gallup, Trump’s presidency has produced the widest partisan gap in modern history. An overwhelming 90% of Republicans approve of his performance, while just 4% of Democrats do (BBC, 2025). (BBC, 2025).