The TACO Index
Week of October 13th, 2025
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STARTUPS
ROUNDS AND UNICORNS
The Week’s 10 Biggest Funding Rounds: Polymarket And Reflection AI Lead A Varied Lineup Of Megarounds (Crunchbase, 5 min read)
Polymarket (Prediction Market): Intercontinental Exchange, operator of the NYSE, will invest up to $2 billion in the New York-based prediction market platform, valuing it at $8 billion pre-money. Polymarket lets users wager on event probabilities across politics, markets, sports, and more
Reflection AI (AI): New York-based Reflection AI raised $2 billion in a round backed by Nvidia and leading VCs, reaching an $8 billion valuation, a 15x increase in just seven months. The company develops open-standard LLM training models for large-scale AI development
Base Power (Battery Power): Austin-based Base Power secured $1 billion in Series C funding led by Addition to expand its battery-powered home energy systems. Founded in 2023, the company has now raised $1.3 billion in total
Stoke Space (Space Tech): Stoke Space raised $510 million in Series D funding led by the US Innovative Technology Fund, alongside a $100 million debt facility from Silicon Valley Bank. The funding will expand production of its reusable launch vehicles and activate its Cape Canaveral launch complex
Expedition Therapeutics (Biotech): San Francisco-based Expedition Therapeutics raised $165 million in Series A funding co-led by Sofinnova Investments and Novo Holdings. The biotech is developing therapies for inflammatory and respiratory diseases, with funds supporting Phase 2 trials for its lead COPD treatment
North American Startup Funding Held High In Q3 (PitchBook, 2 min read)
North American startup funding remained strong in Q3 2025, driven by investors’ continued appetite for AI. Total investment reached $63.1 billion across US and Canadian startups, up slightly from Q2 and more than $20 billion higher year over year. The gains came from larger rounds rather than more deals, with 2,276 total rounds, slightly down from the previous quarter. AI dominated the landscape, capturing 57% of all funding, led by Anthropic’s $13 billion Series F, which alone represented over one-fifth of all startup capital
Late-stage rounds accounted for $42.9 billion, including billion-dollar raises by Cerebras, Figure, and PsiQuantum, while early-stage deals climbed to $15.6 billion
Seed funding dropped to $4.6 billion following Q2’s record-breaking period
AI investment totaled $35.7 billion, nearly double year-ago levels, and exit activity remained steady, highlighted by Figma’s blockbuster IPO and notable M&A moves from Atlassian and OpenAI
California becomes first state to regulate AI companion chatbots (TechCrunch, 3 min read)
California has become the first state to regulate AI companion chatbots, as Governor Gavin Newsom signed SB 243 into law, requiring companies like OpenAI, Meta, Character AI, and Replika to implement safety protocols to protect children and vulnerable users. Prompted by tragic cases involving minors and harmful chatbot interactions, the law, effective January 1, 2026, mandates age verification, crisis intervention systems, clear AI disclaimers, and restrictions on explicit or manipulative content
It also imposes fines of up to $250,000 for illegal deepfakes
Newsom said the goal is to ensure innovation “with responsibility,” emphasizing child safety and accountability in emerging AI technologies
The bill follows SB 53, which introduced new transparency and whistleblower protections for large AI labs
Nvidia reportedly adds xAI to its growing AI venture portfolio as part of $20B round (PitchBook, 2 min read)
Nvidia is reportedly investing $2 billion in equity as part of Elon Musk’s xAI’s $20 billion fundraising round, which combines $7.5 billion in equity and $12.5 billion in debt. The round, structured through a special-purpose vehicle (SPV), will fund the purchase of Nvidia GPUs for xAI’s Memphis data center, Colossus 2, with the chips serving as collateral and rented out to offset investor costs
The move expands Nvidia’s growing influence across the AI ecosystem, where it already backs OpenAI, Perplexity, Cohere, Crusoe, Lambda, and Poolside
It also follows a $100 billion chip partnership with OpenAI and a $900 million acqui-hire of semiconductor startup Enfabrica
The investment underscores Nvidia’s strategy to own the infrastructure powering the global AI boom
ECONOMIC SNAPSHOT
China warns US of retaliation over Trump’s 100% tariffs threat (The Guardian, 3 mins read)
Beijing has warned it will retaliate if Donald Trump follows through on his threat to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese imports starting November 1. China’s commerce ministry accused Washington of raising tensions, saying it “does not want a trade war, but is not afraid of it.” The tariffs, paired with new US export controls on critical software, were announced after Beijing restricted shipments of rare-earth minerals vital to US industries
The standoff triggered heavy market losses, wiping nearly $2 trillion off US stocks on Friday and pushing the Dow down 1.9%
While Trump later struck a softer tone, hinting at possible talks with President Xi, investors remain wary
Analysts view Trump’s move as another “escalate-to-de-escalate” tactic aimed at forcing concessions, though Beijing insists its export controls are lawful and limited to civil-use cases
Markets rebound amid latest US-China tariff spat as traders look to possible ‘Taco trade’ (The Guardian, 3 min read)
Global markets edged higher and cryptocurrencies rebounded after easing fears that the escalating US-China trade dispute could spiral further. Tensions rose as President Trump threatened 100% tariffs on Chinese goods over rare-earth export restrictions, prompting warnings of retaliation from Beijing. However, Trump’s conciliatory comments over the weekend, suggesting a potential deal and goodwill toward China, calmed investors
The S&P 500 gained 1.1%, the Nasdaq rose 1.7%, and major European indexes saw modest upticks, while Bitcoin rebounded above $115,000 and Ether climbed to $4,100 after steep weekend losses
Still, uncertainty kept gold at record highs above $4,000 an ounce, reflecting ongoing caution
In Asia, sentiment remained fragile, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng down 1.5%, though Chinese exports surged 8.3% year-over-year in September, signaling resilience amid trade turbulence
US economy growing at fastest pace in nearly 2 years — and the White House has declared it ‘explosive growth’ (Yahoo Finance, 6 min read)
The US economy is sending mixed signals, leaving analysts split on whether it’s rebounding or weakening. The White House hailed a revised Q2 GDP growth of 3.8%, up from 3.3%, as proof of “explosive growth,” driven by higher consumer spending and fewer imports. Yet other indicators paint a gloomier picture: job losses, rising unemployment at 4.3%, and tariffs and inflation weighing on households. Analysts note that spending is concentrated among the top 10% of earners, while most Americans are merely keeping pace with inflation
Excluding tech and software investment, GDP growth would be just 0.1%, according to Harvard economist Jason Furman
Economists warn that momentum may slow in the second half of 2025 as policy uncertainty and debt pressures mount, with Yale’s Budget Lab projecting long-term drag from Trump’s fiscal policies
Public sentiment mirrors the unease, 67% of Americans say the economy is on the wrong track, and most blame rising prices and shrinking purchasing power
IPO & EXITS
India’s Tata Capital makes muted market debut after $1.75 billion IPO (CNBC, 3 min read)
Tata Capital shares rose 1.37% in their trading debut on the National Stock Exchange and BSE after raising ₹155.1 billion ($1.75 billion) in one of India’s largest IPOs of 2025. Priced at ₹326 per share, the offering was fully subscribed, attracting strong institutional demand at 3.4 times the allocation and moderate interest from retail investors
Despite a solid debut, analysts called the performance muted amid weak sentiment toward nonbank lenders, India’s slowdown, job worries, and US tariff pressures
Tata Capital, the country’s third-largest nonbank lender, provides retail, SME, and infrastructure financing
The listing comes as India’s IPO market surges, with 146 IPOs raising $7.2 billion in Q3 2025 and 254 IPOs totaling $11.8 billion year-to-date, underscoring the country’s growing capital market depth
Cerebras Systems Pulls Plug On Its IPO Days After Big Fundraise (Crunchbase, 2 min read)
Cerebras Systems, the Sunnyvale-based AI chipmaker, has withdrawn its planned IPO just days after securing $1.1 billion in Series G funding at an $8.1 billion valuation led by Fidelity and Atreides Management. The company, founded in 2016 and backed by Sequoia, Coatue, and Benchmark, had filed to go public in 2024 as a rival to Nvidia but cited that its previous prospectus was now “out of date”
Cerebras has since shifted from selling hardware to offering cloud-based AI compute services
Its reliance on Group 42, which accounted for over 80% of 2023–2024 revenue, remains a key risk factor
With $1.8 billion raised to date, Cerebras continues to position its AI processors, reportedly 10x faster than leading GPUs, for customers like Mistral AI and the Mayo Clinic
StubHub gains ground after analysts endorsements ease post-IPO jitters (Reuters, 3 min read)
StubHub shares climbed nearly 6% on Monday after multiple brokerages issued bullish ratings following the end of the company’s IPO quiet period. Analysts from J.P. Morgan, BofA Global Research, Evercore ISI, and BMO Capital Markets praised StubHub’s dominance in secondary ticketing and growing push into primary ticketing and advertising, with price targets ranging from $24 to $30. Despite trading at $20 per share, below its $23.50 IPO price, analysts see strong risk/reward potential and expect steady execution in resale and ads
StubHub raised $800 million in its US IPO to help pay down $2.4 billion in debt, marking its return to public markets after delays since its $4.05 billion acquisition by Viagogo in 2020
Founded in 2000, StubHub operates across 200+ countries, offering tickets for sports, music, and live events, and is viewed as both a market leader and disruptor in global ticketing
WHAT A TIME TO BE ALIVE
US VC female founders dashboard (PitchBook, 5 min read)
Venture capital funding for female-founded startups in the US has stabilized after a steep decline from the 2021 peak. While women-led companies now represent a smaller share of total VC deals, they continue to capture a growing portion of total capital raised, signaling stronger deal quality and investor confidence. In Q3 2025, women co-led companies secured $19.8 billion across 621 deals, down from $28.6 billion and 754 deals in Q2
So far in 2025, female-only founded companies have captured 5.8% of total deal count, while female-and-male co-led teams account for 17.5%
In terms of capital, female-only teams received 0.9% of total VC investment, compared to 41.4% going to mixed-gender founding teams
According to PitchBook data, the 16-year trend shows steady progress across states, industries, and stages, highlighting a sustained shift toward greater inclusion and visibility for women founders in the US venture ecosystem
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8alpha.ai’s Research & Investment Team
