Ceasefire in the Trade Trenches
Week of May 12th, 2025
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STARTUPS
ROUNDS AND UNICORNS
The Week’s Biggest Funding Rounds: Anysphere, Wonder Raise Massive Rounds (Crunchbase, 5 minute read)
Anysphere (Artificial Intelligence): Raised $900M at a $9B valuation, led by Thrive Capital with participation from Andreessen Horowitz and Accel. Developer of the Cursor AI coding tool, focused on enterprise software development efficiency
Wonder (Food Delivery): Raised $600M at a $7B+ valuation, with investment from NEA. Aims to build a “super app for mealtime,” having acquired firms like Grubhub to expand vertically in the food delivery space
Atlas Data Storage (Database): Raised $155M in seed funding from Arch Venture Partners and Bezos Expeditions. Commercializes DNA-based data storage technology spun out of Twist Bioscience, offering extreme data density and durability
NewLimit (Biotech): Raised $130M in Series B, led by Kleiner Perkins. Develops gene-based anti-aging therapies, with initial candidates targeting liver cell rejuvenation
Unrivaled Sports (Sports): Raised $120M in strategic investment led by DSG Ventures. A youth sports platform expanding branded properties and programming nationwide
Decade Of Disruption: How Megarounds, Global Expansion And AI Doubled VC Investment In 10 Years (Crunchbase, 6 minute read)
Over the past decade, global startup investment has doubled to around $300 billion annually, driven by three key trends: the globalization of venture capital, the rise of megarounds exceeding $100 million, and a surge in AI-related funding. While the U.S. initially lost its dominant position in venture investment post-2016, it regained the lead in 2023–2024 due to massive AI deals, with U.S.-based startups receiving 56% of global venture capital last year
Megarounds have come to dominate the funding landscape, accounting for over half of all capital deployed in 2024, while smaller deals under $50 million have declined as a share of total funding
The AI boom has been the most transformative force, with over $100 billion invested in AI-related companies in 2024 alone, representing one-third of global venture investment
Analysts expect this wave to redefine sectors from health to defense over the next 10–20 years and significantly expand the tech addressable market
ECONOMIC SNAPSHOT
US and China agree to drastically roll back tariffs in major trade breakthrough (CNN, 4 minute read)
The United States and China have agreed to a major 90-day rollback of tariffs in a surprise breakthrough following intense trade negotiations in Geneva. Both countries will significantly reduce reciprocal tariffs—dropping U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, and Chinese tariffs on U.S. goods from 125% to 10%. Though Trump’s fentanyl-related tariffs remain in place, China will suspend non-tariff countermeasures such as rare-earth export restrictions
This temporary truce, which calms a turbulent trade war, boosted global markets: Dow futures rose over 2%, Nasdaq more than 3.5%, and Asian indices rallied, with India’s stock market jumping almost 4%
The agreement follows economic strain in both countries—U.S. GDP contracted for the first time since 2022, while Chinese exports and factory activity fell sharply
US Stock Futures and Dollar Surge on Tariff Truce: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg, 5 minute read)
Global markets rallied sharply after the U.S. and China announced a 90-day tariff rollback, easing tensions from an escalating trade war that had shaken investor confidence for weeks. S&P 500 futures surged 3.2%, Nasdaq 100 futures jumped 4.1%, and Dow Jones futures climbed 2.6%, signaling a strong open for U.S. equities. The dollar also posted its largest one-day gain in a month, rising 0.9% on the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, while gold fell 2.9% as investors rotated into risk assets
Treasury yields rose, with the 10-year U.S. yield climbing seven basis points to 4.45%, reflecting optimism that recession fears may be receding
Investor sentiment surged as megacap tech stocks rebounded, with Nvidia, Amazon, Apple, and Tesla rising over 5% in premarket trading and the Nasdaq nearing a bull market
While the 90-day tariff pause offered markets a reprieve, analysts cautioned against complacency
Megacap tech adds more than $800 billion in market cap after U.S.-China tariff pause (CNBC, 4 minute read)
Following the U.S.-China agreement to pause most tariffs, the "Magnificent 7" tech giants added a combined $837.5 billion in market value on Monday — their biggest gain since April 9. The move came as investors welcomed the easing of trade tensions that had battered tech stocks, especially semiconductor and smartphone firms exposed to Chinese supply chains
Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom, Qualcomm, and Marvell all rose 5–8%, while Taiwan Semiconductor and ASML surged around 6%
Apple jumped 6% despite estimating a $900 million tariff hit this quarter, and Amazon climbed 8% amid relief for sellers reliant on Chinese goods
U.S.-listed Chinese tech stocks like Alibaba, JD.com, and Baidu also rallied
Key takeaways from the Fed’s latest decision to hold rates steady as it warns of stagflation (CNN, 6 minute read)
In their last Wednesday meeting, the Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged at 4.25–4.5% as it monitors the U.S. economy amid growing concerns over potential stagflation triggered by the President. Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized uncertainty in the economic outlook due to tariffs, which have increased import activity and dragged GDP down, despite continued strength in the labor market with 177,000 jobs added in April and unemployment at 4.2%
The Fed remains cautious, opting to await more data before adjusting rates
Despite a GDP dip, job growth and employment remain strong, allowing the Fed to stay on hold
Powell highlighted deep economic pessimism but noted it's not yet reflected in hard economic data
IPO & EXITS
CoreWeave reportedly looks to raise $1.5B in debt as IPO disappoints (TechCrunch, 2 minute read)
CoreWeave, a New Jersey-based data center operator, is reportedly seeking a $1.5 billion debt deal following a disappointing IPO. Initially aiming to raise $2.7 billion through its March listing, the company reduced its target due to investor concerns over its heavy debt load and a weakening AI infrastructure market
CoreWeave is now conducting a roadshow with JPMorgan to explore new debt options
The company has raised $12.9 billion in debt over the past two years and held $8 billion in total debt as of December 2024, with $7.5 billion in repayments due by the end of 2026
M&A deal signing hits 20 year-low after Trump's 'Liberation Day' (Reuters, 5 minute read)
Global M&A activity plummeted in April 2025 to its lowest level in 20 years following President Donald Trump’s launch of a sweeping global trade war on April 2, dubbed “Liberation Day.” Only 555 deals were signed in the U.S.—the lowest monthly figure since May 2009—while total global deal value dropped to $243 billion, down 54% from March and 20% below the long-term monthly average, according to Dealogic
The market downturn was triggered by sudden tariff announcements, which introduced widespread uncertainty and prompted CEOs to delay IPOs and M&A activity
Bankers and advisors are now urging clients to pause dealmaking until U.S. policy becomes more stable
Tech was one of the few resilient sectors, responsible for nearly 40% of U.S. deal volume this year, as software and IP-based assets are less vulnerable to tariffs
WHAT A TIME TO BE ALIVE
US VC female founders dashboard (Pitchbook, 5 minute read)
Venture capital funding for female founders has stabilized following a sharp decline from 2021 peaks. While the share of total deals involving women-founded or co-founded companies has decreased, these companies are securing a growing proportion of the capital raised. A comprehensive dashboard tracks 16 years of U.S. investment trends for women founders, offering insights into deal counts, capital raised by state, industry, and stage, as well as highlighting notable female-founded startups and firms
In Q2 2025, co-founded female companies reported $3.8 billion in capital invested (vs. $11.1 billion in Q1) and a total of 207 deals, compared to 650 deals in Q1 2025
In terms of deal count, so far in 2025, only female-led companies accounted for 5.7% of the total, while female and male-led companies together represented 18.2%
Regarding capital allocation, female-led companies received only 0.6%, whereas female and male-led companies collectively received 44.9%
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Happy reading,
8alpha.ai’s Research & Investment Team
